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Weekly Economic Update - 9.11.17

EQUIFAX BREACH MAY IMPACT 44% of AMERICANS

Thursday evening, credit reporting agency Equifax disclosed that hackers had raided its databases this spring, accessing the personal information of up to 143 million people. Equifax believes that about 209,000 credit card numbers may have been collected in the process, plus numerous Social Security and driver’s license numbers. Consumers can visit equifaxsecurity2017.com to see if they may have been affected by the breach. Equifax is offering a free year of identity theft insurance and credit monitoring for those at risk.1

 

SERVICE SECTOR EXPANDS FASTER

At an August reading of 55.3, the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector purchasing manager index was 1.4 points improved from its July mark, indicating a quicker pace of expansion for non-manufacturing firms in the eighth month of the year. Readings above 50 indicate sector growth.2

   

DEBT CEILING RAISED, WITH December 15 Deadline

Congress passed a bill to lift the federal borrowing limit Friday, after the White House and congressional leaders agreed to extend the prior, late-September deadline. This measure approves two-and-a-half more months of funding for the federal government. A $15 billion aid package for hurricane victims was also included in the legislation.3

 

THREATS WEIGH ON EQUITIES

Investors were worried about hurricanes and North Korea last week, and major index performance reflected those concerns. Across four days of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.84% to 21,797.79. The S&P 500 retreated 0.59% to 2,461.43, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13% to 6,360.19.4,5

    

THIS WEEK: On Monday, nothing major is scheduled. Tuesday, Apple hosts its annual launch event. On Wednesday, the August Producer Price Index appears, plus earnings from Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The August Consumer Price Index, the latest initial unemployment claims report, and Q3 results from Oracle attract the attention of investors Thursday. August retail sales data, a report on August industrial output, and September’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index all arrive Friday.

  

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+10.30

+17.95

+12.76

+6.62

NASDAQ

+18.15

+20.93

+20.56

+14.79

S&P 500

+9.94

+12.84

+14.24

+6.93

REAL YIELD

9/8 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.25%

0.09%

-0.68%

2.19%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/8/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - wired.com/story/how-to-protect-yourself-from-that-massive-equifax-breach/ [9/7/17]

2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/09/04-08 [9/8/17]

3 - nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/politics/hurricane-aid-debt-ceiling.html [9/8/17]

4 - finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=NPyyWaCWA8mPjAHysZxQ [9/8/17]

5 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F8%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F8%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F8%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F7%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F7%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F7%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/8/17]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/8/17]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/8/17]

 

Weekly Economic Update - 9.4.17

SEPTEMBER BRINGS A MEDIOCRE JOBS REPORT

The Department of Labor’s latest employment snapshot shows payrolls expanding by 156,000 net new jobs in August. This was a retreat from the job gains of 200,000+ reported in both June and July. The headline jobless rate ticked up to 4.4%; the U-6 rate, which factors in the underemployed, held steady at 8.6%. Annualized wage growth remained stuck at 2.5%.1

 

POSITIVE NEWS FROM MAIN STREET

Climbing once again, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index ascended 2.9 points to 122.9 in August. That topped the forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who anticipated a 122.5 reading. Additionally, the Department of Commerce said that consumer spending advanced 0.3% in July, up from 0.2% in June. Household incomes rose 0.4% in July; they were unchanged in June.2

  

ISM: FACTORY SECTOR IN FINE SHAPE

Can the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager index top 60 soon? It rose 2.5 points to 58.8 in August, indicating a high degree of expansion. This was the best reading on the index since April 2011. So far in 2017, the factory PMI has averaged a reading of 56.7.3

 

WALL STREET ENDS THE SUMMER WITH A RALLY

All three major U.S. stock benchmarks gained ground last week. Out in front was the Nasdaq Composite, which added 2.71% in five days to settle at 6,435.33 Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.37% for the week, closing September 1 at 2,476.55. As for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it moved north 0.80% to 21,987.56. The CBOE VIX dropped 10.02% in five days to 10.15 at Friday’s closing bell. One last detail worth noting: the NYSE Arca Biotech index jumped 8.98% last week to go up 37.65% on the year.4

   

THIS WEEK: Wall Street is closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Investors consider earnings from Casey’s General Stores, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and the Hudson’s Bay Company on Tuesday, plus a report on July factory orders. A new Federal Reserve Beige Book and the August ISM service sector PMI arrive Wednesday, along with earnings releases from Fred’s and Navistar. Thursday, earnings arrive from Barnes & Noble, Dell Technologies, Hovnanian Enterprises, and Verifone, and a new initial unemployment claims report surfaces. On Friday, Kroger reports quarterly results.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+11.26

+19.37

+13.59

+6.46

NASDAQ

+19.55

+23.11

+21.97

+14.79

S&P 500

+10.62

+14.08

+15.21

+6.80

REAL YIELD

9/1 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.37%

0.12%

-0.68%

2.34%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/1/174,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/09/01/us-hiring-cools-off-with-156000-new-jobs-in-august.html [9/1/17]

2 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/1/17]

3 - instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [9/1/17]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F1%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F1%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F1%2F16&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F31%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F31%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F31%2F07&x=0&y=0 [9/1/17]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/1/17]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/1/17]

 


Earl Schultz and Shannon LaRosse are investment adviser representatives of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Strategic Wealth Advisory is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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