Archived Newsletters

Weekly Economic Update_4.15.2019

In this week’s recap: stocks advance after earnings season gets off to an encouraging start, and consumer prices rise the most in more than a year.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

April 15, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks broke out of a narrow range on Friday following news that two major banks grew their bottom line in the first quarter. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.79%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average improved 0.50%. Turning to overseas stocks, the MSCI EAFE index declined 0.09%.1-4

The market spent much of the week in a lull as investors waited for earnings season to begin. Wall Street is paying close attention to both guidance and profit margins.

 

Big Banks Post Solid Results

Friday, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase both reported Q1 profit growth, and JPMorgan Chase announced record revenue.5

This was welcomed news. Analysts have tempered some of their expectations entering this earnings season, recognizing that slowing global growth, tariffs, and dollar strength may be affecting corporate profits. (The dollar rallied 6.2% in Q1.)6

[Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities.]   

 

Inflation Picks Up

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March, the most in 14 months. This matched the consensus forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch, who believed rising gas prices would affect the number.

Even with this March jump, annual inflation remained relatively tame at 1.9%.7

 

What’s Ahead

Note that U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Good Friday (April 19).

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


Life insurance is not solely for people with spouses and kids. If you are a caregiver to an ill parent, have significant debt, or simply wish to avoid having others pay for your funeral, life insurance coverage could prove very important in the event of your passing.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Thursday: March retail sales.

Friday: March housing starts and building permits.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, April 12, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS)

Tuesday: Bank of America (BAC), BlackRock (BLK), Comerica (CMA), IBM (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Wednesday: Abbott Labs (ABT), Alcoa (AA), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Morgan Stanley (MS), PepsiCo (PEP), U.S. Bancorp (USB), United Rentals (URI)

Thursday: American Express (AMEX), Honeywell (HON), Manpower (MAN), Philip Morris (PM), Schlumberger (SLB), Travelers Companies (TRV), Union Pacific (UNP).

Source: Morningstar.com, April 12, 2019.

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“To fly we have to have resistance.”

MAYA LIN

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

Name two English words (longer than two letters) that both begin and end with the letters “he” (in that order).

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What is the timepiece with the most moving parts? (It has been around for centuries.)

ANSWER: The hourglass.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [4/12/19] 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [4/12/19]         

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/COMP [4/12/19]        

4 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [4/12/19]  

5 - cnn.com/2019/04/12/investing/wells-fargo-bank-earnings/index.html [4/12/19]

6 - tinyurl.com/y45wuftu [4/12/19]

7 - marketwatch.com/story/higher-gas-prices-boost-cost-of-living-in-march-but-inflation-still-soft-cpi-shows-2019-04-10 [4/10/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [4/12/19] 

quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [4/12/19]         

quotes.wsj.com/index/COMP [4/12/19]        

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [4/12/19]

markets.wsj.com [4/12/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [4/12/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-


Weekly Economic Update_4.08.2019

In this week’s recap: stocks rise with help from a reassuring March employment report as well as news of further progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

April 8, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks posted their second straight weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.17% in five trading days; the S&P 500, 1.27%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.72%. The MSCI EAFE index of international stocks rose 1.84%.1-4

Investors got some good news last week: an encouraging employment report and indications that a new U.S.-China trade deal might be near.

 

A Solid Hiring Report

The economy generated 196,000 net new jobs in March, according to the Department of Labor. Monthly job growth averaged 180,000 in the first quarter.

The March hiring recovery eased Wall Street concerns about a near-term economic downturn. If payroll growth is this strong in April and May, the Federal Reserve may be motivated to rethink its pause of interest rate hikes.5 

 

Another Step in the Trade Talks

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said last week that the U.S. and China have come to a consensus on the basics of a new trade accord. President Trump commented Thursday that “the next four weeks” of negotiations will be critical.6

 

What’s Next

The first-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with three of the biggest banks in the country reporting results. The question is whether stocks in the S&P 500 will post earnings that beat analyst expectations to the degree that they have in the past few quarters.

 

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


A new business owner should have some cash available for professional services, such as legal or accounting help. Those services will probably be necessary before the business receives any funding.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: Minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting, plus the latest Consumer Price Index, tracking monthly and yearly inflation.

Friday: The initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, which assesses consumer confidence.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, April 5, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Thursday: Fastenal (FAST), Rite Aid (RAD)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), PNC (PNC), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Source: Morningstar.com, April 5, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“If you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain.”

DOLLY PARTON

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

What is the timepiece with the most moving parts? (It has been around for centuries.)

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What is the only planet within our solar system that rotates clockwise?

ANSWER: Venus.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [4/5/19] 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [4/5/19]         

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/COMP [4/5/19]        

4 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [4/5/19]

5 - cnn.com/2019/04/05/economy/march-jobs-report/index.html [4/5/19]

6 - cnbc.com/2019/04/05/stock-market-us-china-trade-nonfarm-payrolls-in-focus.html [4/5/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

markets.wsj.com [4/5/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 [4/5/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [4/5/19]


Monthly Economic Update_4.2019

In this month’s recap: the Federal Reserve sees no rate hikes in 2019, investors watch Treasury yields with interest, hiring suddenly weakens, home sales pick up, and the price of oil tops $60.  

Monthly Economic Update

 

 

April 2019

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

The Federal Reserve altered its outlook on interest rates in March, and the stock and bond markets certainly took notice. Both the Fed and the European Central Bank communicated that they saw economic growth moderating. Even so, the S&P 500 managed to advance 1.79% for the month. Trade talks continued between the U.S. and China, but without much in the way of real developments. New reports revealed a sudden slowdown in hiring and only mild inflation. Existing home sales accelerated, crude oil gained value, and the Brexit saga took yet another turn.1

 

 

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Without a doubt, the major story of the month was the Federal Reserve’s newly dovish stance on monetary policy. The central bank had forecast two quarter-point rate hikes for 2019 in late 2018. On March 20, it held rates steady while projecting only one quarter-point hike through 2021. In announcing this dramatic pivot, the Fed also lowered its estimate of 2019 U.S. economic expansion to 2.1% from the prior 2.3%. Talking to the media after the release of the March 20 policy statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that the “growth of economic activity has slowed,” adding that Fed policymakers saw “some weakening” in the economy, but no signs of a recession.2

More than a few investors interpreted the Fed’s revised outlook as a commentary on the near future. Demand for longer-term Treasury bonds increased, sending their prices higher and their yields lower (bond yields fall when bond prices rise and vice versa). On March 22, the yield on the 2-year Treasury exceeded the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Analysts call this an “inverted yield curve,” and when it happens, the financial media is quick to point out that it could signal a weaker economy ahead. This is open to debate, but rising demand for longer-term Treasuries does imply less appetite for risk in the financial markets.3

By March 26, the CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool – a gauge of market expectations about interest rate changes – gave the Fed a 71.7% chance of making an interest rate cut by the end of the year, with a 57.7% chance of a cut by September.4

The latest employment report from the Department of Labor showed payrolls expanding by just 20,000 net new hires in February. Even so, the main jobless rate fell 0.2% to 3.8%; the U-6 rate, including the underemployed, dropped 0.8% to 7.3%. (Both reductions could reflect furloughed federal workers returning to their jobs.) Also worth noting: hourly wages were up a nice 3.4% year-over-year.5

Inflation remained muted. The latest Consumer Price Index (February) showed just a 1.5% annualized gain, hardly the kind of pressure that begs action from policymakers.5

On Main Street, there was a slip in consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s monthly index came in at 124.1 for March – a good reading, but well below the 131.4 mark of a month earlier. The latest available data on consumer spending showed a mere 0.1% gain in January.6

A much-watched index tracking the U.S. manufacturing sector showed solid growth, but a slightly slower pace of business activity. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index for the factory sector fell from 56.6 in January to 54.2 in February.5

Last month, the federal government downgraded its estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The final estimate was 2.2%, revised from 2.6%.6

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

As March ended, a positive note was sounded in the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin tweeted that “constructive” discussions were taking place, to be continued in April in Washington, D.C.7

The Brexit did not occur on March 29. Instead, the United Kingdom’s Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s (revised) Brexit plan on that day, for a third time. The European Union had earlier granted the United Kingdom a short-term extension of the Brexit deadline; the revised deadline, April 12, now looms large. If Parliament cannot agree on a Brexit deal at the start of this month, May will be left two choices. She can try to carry out a “hard” Brexit by April 12, a move that has little apparent support in Parliament. Alternately, she can ask the E.U. to extend the Brexit deadline again, which is hardly a given.8

On the continent, the European Central Bank decided to bring back some of the stimulus measures it had announced an end to in 2018. In its latest policy announcement, the ECB said that it would hold off on raising interest rates until at least 2020. (It last raised interest rates at the start of this decade.) Elsewhere, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast 2019 growth of less than 1% for the economies of Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom, and growth of only 1% for the 19-country Eurozone.9

 

WORLD MARKETS

Last month, some of the best-performing foreign indices were in the emerging markets. China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 5.09% in March, and India’s twin benchmarks outgained it: the Nifty 50 soared 7.70%; the Sensex, 7.82%. Interestingly, the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 rose 2.89%; France’s CAC 40 added 2.10%. Taiwan’s TWSE 50 improved 2.19%. Two other indices were basically flat for the month: the German DAX eked out a 0.09% advance; the Australian All Ordinaries, a 0.14% gain. MSCI’s Emerging Markets and World indexes respectively improved 0.68% and 1.05%. Three indices took notable losses: South Korea’s Kospi lost 2.49%, Malaysia’s KLSE Composite fell 3.75%, and Argentina’s Merval retreated 4.62%.10,11

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Unleaded gasoline had another great month, rising 14.26%. That said, all eyes were on oil. WTI crude regained the $60 level, advancing another 5.12% in March and wrapping up the month at a price of $60.18 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In contrast, natural gas lost 4.77% in March; heating oil, 2.91%.12

 

The U.S. Dollar Index improved 1.09% last month. All four major metals retreated: gold took a 1.65% loss, silver fell 2.89%, platinum retreated 2.77%, and copper ceded 0.56%. At the closing bell on March 29, an ounce of gold was worth $1,290.80 on the Commodity Exchange of the NYMEX. The March gains among major crops: cotton, 4.19%; cocoa, 2.14%; wheat, 1.44%. The March losses: coffee, 1.20%; corn, 1.31%; soybeans, 1.48%; sugar, 1.57%.12,13

 

REAL ESTATE

In a burst of good news for the housing market, existing home sales greatly increased. The National Association of Realtors announced a February gain of 11.8%. It was the best month for residential resales in more than three years. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun credited a “powerful combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, rising income, and higher consumer confidence.” Even so, sales were still down 1.8% year-over-year, and the NAR pending home sales index was 1.0% lower in February. The median sale price of a single-family residence was $249,500 in the second month of 2019, up 3.6% from February 2018.6,14

New home sales also improved in February. They were up 4.9% month-over-month, albeit 0.6% year-over-year.7

As the NAR noted, mortgage rates have declined of late. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average interest rate for the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 4.35% on February 28; in the same survey, the 15-year FRM had a mean interest rate of 3.77%. By March 28, the 30-year FRM bore an average interest rate of just 4.06%, while a 15-year FRM had an average interest rate of 3.57%.15

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   M O N T H
 

 


In view of possible extended care needs, you may want to look at a hybrid life insurance policy that can potentially give you a pool of money to pay those costs. Unused benefits may be paid to the policy’s beneficiaries after your death.

 

 

 

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

All three big U.S. equity market benchmarks rose in March – to varying degrees, with the blue chips barely improving. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 7,729.32 on the last trading day of the month (March 29); the S&P 500, at 2,834.40; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 25,928.68. The Russell 2000 posted a one-month loss of 3.14%, declining to 1,539.78. The CBOE VIX, the index showing expectations of stock market volatility, ended March at 13.70, advancing 0.96%.1,16

MARKET INDEX

Y-T-D CHANGE

1-MO CHANGE

2018

DJIA

+11.15

+0.05

-5.63

NASDAQ

+16.49

+2.61

-3.88

S&P 500

+13.07

+1.79

-6.24

       

BOND YIELD

3/29 RATE

1 MO AGO

1 YR AGO

10-YEAR TREASURY

2.41

2.73

2.74

 

Sources: barchart.com, wsj.com, treasury.gov - 3/29/191,16,17,18

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

10-year Treasury yield = projected return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government’s 10-year bond.

 

Currently, Wall Street’s collective eye is focused not only on the upcoming earnings season, but also on domestic and global growth. Dovish notes sounded by the Fed and the ECB and declining bond yields are signaling reduced expectations of economic vitality. Perceptions of the market and the economy may be shifting as a consequence and impacting bullish sentiment. All of this may pose a significant challenge for the stock market this month, and earnings results may or may not have the power to alter such perceptions. This is a good time to remember that markets go through cycles, and over the long term, you will experience many of them as an investor. There will always be ups and downs; your investment approach takes them into account, plus your time horizon. Whether April turns out to be spectacular, disappointing, or somewhere in between, your long-run objectives should remain your focus.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

 

“He who knows that enough is enough will always have enough.”

Laozi

 

 

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

April’s major scheduled economic news releases include: ADP’s March private payrolls report and the Institute for Supply Management’s March reading on business activity in the service sector (4/3), the latest jobs report from the Department of Labor (4/5), March consumer inflation (4/10), March wholesale inflation (4/11), the initial April consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan (4/12), March retail sales (4/16), March housing starts (4/17), the Conference Board’s latest leading indicator index (4/18), March existing home sales (4/22), March new home sales (4/23), the latest monthly snapshot of hard goods orders (4/25), the final April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (4/26), March consumer spending (4/29), and a new Conference Board consumer confidence index and March pending home sales (4/30). The Federal Reserve makes its next announcement on interest rates on May 1.

 

 

 

T H E  M O N T H L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

It is filled with garb, and the price is free; you can take whatever you like and return what you don't need. What is it?

 

LAST MONTH’S RIDDLE: What has four legs, bears weight without complaint, and never makes a peep when food is brought its way?

ANSWER: A table.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Established in January 1980, the All Ordinaries is the oldest index of shares in Australia. It is made up of the share prices for 500 of the largest companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index comprises of the largest 30 companies by full market capitalization on Bursa Malaysia's Main Board. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [3/29/19]

2 - cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hikes-none-in-2019-federal-reserve-projects-no-rate-hikes-slower-growth-this-year/ [3/20/19]  

3 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007 [3/22/19]

4 - investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-fed-rate-cut-odds-inverted-yield-curve/ [3/26/19]

5 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [3/29/19]

6 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [3/29/19]

7 - marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rise-as-wall-street-looks-to-wrap-up-week-month-and-quarter-with-gains-for-most-indexes-2019-03-29 [3/29/19]

8 - nytimes.com/2019/03/29/world/europe/brexit-britain-theresa-may.html [3/29/19]

9 - nytimes.com/2019/03/07/business/ecb-european-economy-stimulus.html [3/7/19]

10 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [3/29/19]

11 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [3/29/19]

12 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [3/29/19]

13 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [3/29/19]

14 - nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-surge-11-8-percent-in-february [3/22/19]

15 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [3/28/19]

16 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/29/19]  

17 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]  

18 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [3/29/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_4.01.2019

In this week’s recap: stocks close out a great quarter, mortgage rates decline, and Wall Street awaits a wave of IPO action.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

April 1, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks ended last week higher as volatility slowed, completing their best quarter since 2009. A Friday tweet from Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin encouraged investors, referring to “constructive” discussions in the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.1

The S&P 500 gained 1.27% for the week. The Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite both exceeded that advance: the Dow rose 1.60%; the Nasdaq, 1.42%.2-4

Foreign shares went the other way. The MSCI EAFE index following international stocks retreated 0.91%.5

 

2019 Could Be a Big Year for IPOs

One of the ride-share pioneers, Lyft, closed on its initial public offering (IPO) on Friday, and a glance at the IPO calendar shows that as many as 226 companies could soon go public, with Uber and Airbnb possibly among them.6

This IPO wave may be a signal of a market top, or it may point to a comeback for risk appetite, which could be healthy for the overall market.

Should some big-name IPOs stumble, it may deter others from moving ahead, which may influence the market psychology. Conversely, an enthusiastic reception may help support further market advances.

[Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities.]   

 

Good News for the Housing Market

The Fed’s dovish tone has also influenced home loan rates. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows an average interest rate of just 4.06% on a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage, compared with 4.28% a week earlier and 4.95% in December.7

This news is especially significant given the recent pickup in existing home sales. They jumped 11.8% in February, the biggest monthly gain in more than three years.8

[A 30-year, fixed rate mortgage is a conventional home loan meeting the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but it is not a mortgage guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.]

 

TAX TIP

The federal income tax filing deadline is Monday, April 15. However, residents of Maine and Massachusetts have until Wednesday, April 17 to file their 2018 tax return. April 15 is Patriots' Day, and April 16 is Emancipation Day.9

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


Good debt (a home loan, a student loan) should be distinguished from bad debt (such as credit card debt with a high-interest rate). Strive to pay off bad debt as quickly as you can, and remember that much of it may be linked to purchases that reflect wants rather than needs.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: February retail sales.

Wednesday: ADP’s snapshot of March private sector hiring.

Friday: The Department of Labor’s March jobs report.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, March 29, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: GameStop (GME), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Thursday: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Source: Morningstar.com, March 29, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“No pessimist ever discovered the secrets of the stars, or sailed to uncharted land, or opened a new doorway for the human spirit.”

HELEN KELLER

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

What is the only planet within our solar system that rotates clockwise?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Determine the numeral between 1 and 100 that is also nine times the sum of its digits.

ANSWER: 81. 8 + 1 = 9, 9 x 9 = 81.

 

 

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - marketwatch.com/story/stocks-end-higher-sp-records-strongest-quarter-in-a-decade-2019-03-29 [3/29/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [3/29/19] 

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [3/29/19]         

4 - quotes.wsj.com/index/COMP [3/29/19]        

5 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [3/29/19]

6 - cnbc.com/2019/02/04/a-giant-ipo-wave-is-coming-as-unicorns-whet-investor-appetite.html [2/4/19]

7 - startribune.com/us-mortgage-rates-post-biggest-drop-in-decade-to-4-06-pct/507781302/ [3/29/19]

8 - nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-surge-11-8-percent-in-february [3/22/19]

 

9 - efile.com/tax-day-deadlines/ [3/21/19]

CHART CITATIONS.

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [3/29/19]   

quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [3/29/19]         

quotes.wsj.com/index/COMP [3/29/19]        

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [3/29/19]

markets.wsj.com [3/29/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [3/29/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [3/29/19]



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