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Weekly Economic Update - August 30, 2021

In this week’s recap: Federal Reserve says tapering likely in 2021, but no interest rate hikes for now.

Weekly Economic Update

August 30, 2021

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

The stock market powered to record levels last week amid talk of Fed tapering and a deceleration in new Delta variant cases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.96%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 increased 1.52%. The Nasdaq Composite index led, picking up 2.82%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.39%.1,2,3


PUSHING HIGHER

Stocks surged to begin the week as investor sentiment improved on news of the FDA’s approval of its first COVID-19 vaccine, a strong housing number and comments by the Federal Reserve Bank-Dallas president that he would support delaying tapering if the Delta variant spread worsened.

Stocks continued their climb through midweek, pushing the S&P 500 to another record high and the NASDAQ Composite above 15,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed the week at record highs following Fed Chair Powell’s comments that Fed is likely to begin winding down its monthly bond purchases (aka tapering) by year-end, though no interest rate hikes were imminent.4

POWELL SPEAKS

At last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday provided further insights into Fed plans to begin tapering. Powell said that the Fed may likely commence tapering prior to year-end, adding that the wind down of bond purchases should not be seen as a signal for future rate hikes. Powell emphasized that labor market conditions remain short of the Fed’s target for maximizing employment. He also reiterated his case for why inflation remains a transitory phenomenon.4

With a number of Regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents already supportive of tapering, investors may see more definitive steps coming out of next month’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

Never leave money on the table when it comes to your 401(k) or 403(b). If your employer offers to match contributions, strive to contribute enough so that you get the match.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. 

Wednesday: ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index. ADP (Automated Data Processing) Employment Report.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Factory Orders.

Friday: Employment Situation Report. ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services Index.

Source: Econoday, August 27, 2021

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).

Tuesday: Netease, Inc.. (NTES), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD).

Wednesday: Okta, Inc. (OKTA).

Thursday: Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Mongodb, Inc. (MDB), Docusign, Inc. (DOCU).

Source: Zacks, August 27, 2021

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“What you do makes a difference, and you have to decide what kind of difference you want to make.”

JANE GOODALL

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

The more you take away, the bigger I become. What am I?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Aaron is the brother of Bob. Bob is the brother of Cody. Cody is the father of Dan. So how is Dan related to Aaron?

ANSWER: Aaron is Dan's uncle.

 

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.

CITATIONS:

  1. The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2021
  2. The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2021
  3. The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2021
  4. CNBC, August 27, 2021

Weekly Economic Update - August 23, 2021

In this week’s recap: A Fed taper may loom; economic data mixed.

Weekly Economic Update

August 23, 2021

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks turned lower last week amid the increasing probability of a Fed tapering, mixed economic data, and growing concerns about the economic impact of the Delta variant.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.59%. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 0.73%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, surrendered 2.94%.1,2,3

 

UNSETTLING NEWS

After the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 index climbed to new record highs to begin the week, stocks pulled back amid weaker-than-expected retail sales, festering concerns about the Delta variant, and slowing growth in China.

The stock market retreat accelerated mid-week with the release of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes, which signaled that Fed officials may be ready to begin reducing its monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. Stocks managed to stabilize on Friday, paring some of the week’s losses. Consumer staples, health care, real estate, and utilities were the top-performing groups.4 

 

TAPER BY YEAR END?

Two weeks ago, multiple regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents suggested that the economy was strong enough to justify tapering the Fed’s monthly bond purchases.

Last week, that chorus grew a bit louder with the release of minutes from July’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The precise timing was left undecided, with some officials believing it should begin before year-end, while others thought waiting until the start of the new year was the better choice.5

The fine print on a lease or a mortgage is always worth reading. Ask the business owners and homeowners who have learned this from experience.

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Existing Home Sales.PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) Composite Flash.

Tuesday: New Home Sales.

Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Econoday, August 20, 2021

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: JD.com, Inc. (JD), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW).

Tuesday: Best Buy Co. (BBY), Intuit, Inc. (INTU).

Wednesday: Salesforce.com (CRM), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK).

Thursday: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dell Technologies (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW), Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON).

Source: Zacks, August 20, 2021

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

“Every man is working out his destiny in his own way and nobody can be of any help except by being kind, generous, and patient.”

HENRY MILLER

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

Aaron is the brother of Bob. Bob is the brother of Cody. Cody is the father of Dan. So how is Dan related to Aaron?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What three positive numbers give the same answer when multiplied or added together?

ANSWER: 1,2, and 3.

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.

CITATIONS:

  1. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
  2. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
  3. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
  4. ALPS Portfolio Solutions, August 20, 2021
  5. Reuters.com, August 19, 2021

Weekly Economic Update - August 16, 2021

In this week’s recap: Passage of infrastructure bill in Senate boosts DJIA and S&P; Nasdaq stays flat.

Weekly Economic Update

August 16, 2021

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Looking past inflation figures and Delta variant trends, stocks last week found a way to climb higher and set fresh record highs in the process.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.87%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 0.71%. The Nasdaq Composite index was flat (-0.09%) for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.77%.1,2,3

 

QUIETLY CLIMBING

Stocks moved higher amid relatively light trading last week. After initially retreating under the weight of Delta variant updates, stocks grinded higher, catalyzed by the Senate’s passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

Two themes emerged last week. The first was that inflation assumed a less threatening profile. The most recent Consumer Price Index report showed some moderation in consumer price increases, while investors appeared to interpret a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report as the peak in this inflation cycle.

Also worth noting were comments by multiple Federal Reserve Bank regional presidents suggesting that the time for tapering (i.e., ending the Fed’s bond purchases) was nearing, with one intimating that tapering could start as early as October.4 

 

INFLATION REPORTS

Consumer prices climbed at their fastest rate since August 2008, rising 5.4% year-over-year. But this elevated rate was expected by most economists. The core inflation rate (excludes the more volatile food and energy prices) came in 4.3% higher, substantially lower than anticipated. This deceleration in core inflation was largely attributed to a slowdown in price increases in used cars and apparel.5

More unsettling was the following day’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI, which can be an indicator of future consumer prices, came in at the highest rate since tracking began, surging 7.8%.6

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

Think about making a household budget using an online spreadsheet. You can easily find or create one on the Web for free; some even have built-in calculators.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production.

Wednesday: Housing Starts. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Minutes.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

Source: Econoday, August 13, 2021

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Walmart, Inc. (WMT), The Home Depot, Inc. (HD), Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A), Roblox Corporation (RBLX).

Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Target Corporation (TGT), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW).

Thursday: Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST), The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL).

Friday: Deere & Company (DE).

Source: Zacks, August 13, 2021

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

ARISTOTLE

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

What three positive numbers give the same answer when multiplied or added together? 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What has exactly three feet, but not a single toe?

ANSWER: A Yardstick.

 

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.

CITATIONS:

  1. The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2021
  2. The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2021
  3. The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2021
  4. The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2021
  5. CNBC, August 11, 2021
  6. Reuters, August 12, 2021


Earl Schultz and Shannon LaRosse are investment adviser representatives of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Strategic Wealth Advisory is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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